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TS Paul moves along Baja coast

Rains could produce flash floods and mudslides

MIAMI | October 17, 2012

Weather advisories were in effect Wednesday along Baja California, Mexico, as Tropical Storm Paul skirted the southwestern coast, U.S. forecasters said.

Paul, with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, was about 120 miles west-northwest of Loreto, Mexico, moving northwest at 13 mph, the National Hurricane Center in Miami said in its 5 a.m. EDT advisory.

A tropical storm warning was in effect from Santa Fe to El Pocito and from San Evaristo to Bahia San Juan Bautista.

A tropical storm watch was posted north of El Pocito to Punta Eugenia.

On its forecast track, the center of Paul was expected to move along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula through Wednesday afternoon, then move away from the peninsula Wednesday night and Thursday, forecasters said.

Paul was expected to weaken during the next 48 hours and should become a tropical depression by Wednesday afternoon. Paul is expected to become a remnant low pressure system by Wednesday night and dissipate Thursday.

Tropical storm-force winds extended outward from center to 140 miles.

Paul is expected to produce 1-2 inches of rain over the central Baja California peninsula, with isolated amounts of up to 10 inches possible. The rains could produce flash floods and mudslides.

Swells generated by Paul will affect the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and the coast of the Mexican state of Sinaloa for the next day or so, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

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