Tornadoes are so episodic and scattered and unpredictable, it’s difficult to take specific steps other than being very prudent in what we do —Rev. Marcus Hepburn

Residents of the Gulf Coast may have weathered this year’s hurricane season so far with below average activity, but they may be in for a wet and stormy winter thanks to El Nino.

Meteorologists have reason to believe this winter will bring excessive rainfall across Texas and the southeast and an increase of tornadoes to Florida.

The Lake County, FL Department of Emergency Management is working closely with their National Weather Service (NWS) office to devise a plan to educate the public on the upcoming concern for severe weather.

“We’re going to explain to people the good part of El Nino is that it brings less hurricanes,” said Director Jerry Smith of Lake County Emergency Management. “The bad part is that it brings severe weather.”

Smith and other officials like a plan that will wake up residents in the event of a tornado so that they can in some way prepare and seek safety. The plan also calls for some residents to change their habits.

“We want them to watch the weather report before they go to bed,” Smith said.

Looking at previous El Nino years, most tornadoes form between midnight and dawn while the majority of residents are asleep.

“You can go back and look at El Nino winters and look at the number of tornadoes and see a pretty significant correlation,” said Victor Murphy, the Southern Region Climate Service Program Manager for the National Weather Service.

On Feb. 2, 2007, the last El Nino winter, a tornado tore through Lake County and three other counties in Florida killing 21 people, destroying more than 500 homes and damaging more than 1,500 others.

It is this kind of weather event meteorologists want residents to be prepared for during the Winter months and on into the beginning of Spring.

During the tornadoes in 2007, the Florida Baptist Convention were able to have chainsaw teams on the ground doing cleanup within six hours of the disaster.

“Pretty much, our organization as well as any other, try to stay ready for whatever comes our way,” said Fritz Wilson, director of the Disaster Relief and Recovery Department of the Florida Baptist Convention. “In Florida, we get enough practice to stay ready.”

“As we approach another El Nino, we watch the weather a little closer and see where we can be ready to respond quickly,” Wilson said.

This year’s El Nino showed up in May or June and was one of the primary contributors to a below average Atlantic hurricane season. Only eight named storms developed, with two hurricanes as opposed to the six hurricanes, with at least two major storms in a typical season.

“There are two screaming messages,” said Murphy. “Some pretty wet weather into the Spring, and above normal severe weather in Florida, i.e. tornadoes.”

Other than being aware of the increased risk for tornadoes this season, emergency response and management officials say planning to protect people from possible tornadoes is impossible.

“Tornadoes are so episodic and scattered and unpredictable, it’s difficult to take specific steps other than being very prudent in what we do,” said the Rev. Marcus Hepburn of Florida state Voluntary Organizations Active in Disaster (VOAD) and chair of the Florida Catholic Conference. “They’re so targeted and selective in where they hit.”

There have been many improvements in Doppler radar and other technologies over the past few years as fairly good tools to pinpoint potential cells and provide some sort of advanced warning.

The problem Hepburn said, “You are warning people in a 5,000 square mile area about something that is much smaller.”

The best advice before a tornado strikes is if you are in a trailer or other tornado destruction prone area and you see a tornado coming, find a safer place.

“There’s very little you can do to reduce the damage from a tornado coming down at 200 miles per hour,” Hepburn said.