CSU hurricane forecast unchanged

Busy season forecast with 17 named storms, nine of them hurricanes.

BY P.J. HELLER | FORT COLLINS, Colo. | May 31, 2007



"We continue to call for a very active Atlantic basin hurricane season in 2007. Landfall probabilities for the United States coastline are well above their long-period averages."

—Philip J. Klozbach


One day before the official start of the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season, researchers at Colorado State University released their updated forecast, sticking to an earlier prediction of a "much more active" season that includes 17 named storms, nine of them hurricanes.

"We continue to call for a very active Atlantic basin hurricane season in 2007," they said. "Landfall probabilities for the United States coastline are well above their long-period averages."

The report, by Philip J. Klozbach and William M. Gray, mirrored the report they issued April 3, which called for a total of five major hurricanes.

The report said there was a 74 percent chance that at least one major hurricane - a Category 3 or greater - would hit the U.S. coastline. It said there was a 50 percent chance of the storm striking the East Coast including the Florida peninsula and a 49 percent chance of it slamming the Gulf Coast. The possibility of a hurricane making landfall in the Caribbean was described as above average.

The report said global warming did not play any role in recent increase in hurricane activity. Rather, it said changes in ocean salinity were believed to be the cause.

The CSU prediction was similar to those issued by other agencies and forecasters.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has predicted 13 to 17 named storms, with seven to 10 becoming hurricanes. Of those, three to five could become Category 3 or greater with winds of more than 111 miles per hour, it said.

The 2007 Atlantic hurricane season starts Friday and ends Nov. 30.

 

Related Files:

CSU_Forecast.pdf


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Related Links:

CSU Tropical Meteorology Project

National Hurricane Center

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