Disaster News Network Print This
 

Active hurricane season seen

Hurricane forecaster William Gray is sticking with his earlier prediction of a "more active" season.

BY PJ HELLER | FORT COLLINS, Colo. | April 5, 2003


"We foresee an above-average probability of U.S. and Caribbean landfall."

—William Gray


Hurricane forecaster William Gray is sticking with his earlier prediction of a "more active" Atlantic Basin hurricane season in 2003 which could see twice as many hurricanes as a year earlier.

Gray, a professor at Colorado State University who has been forecasting Atlantic hurricane activity for 20 years, issued his latest predictions on Friday. They were identical to the forecast he issued months earlier.

In that earlier forecast, Gray said he expects the 2003 season will bring 12 named storms, eight of which will become hurricanes. Three of those will develop into intense hurricanes with winds of more than 111 miles per hour, he predicted.

The 2002 hurricane season saw 12 named storms, four of which became hurricanes and two of which were intense storms.

"The recent upturn in Atlantic basin hurricane activity which began in 1995 is expected to continue through 2003," Gray said. "We anticipate an above-average probability for Atlantic basin tropical cyclones and U.S. hurricane landfall. We expect Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity to be about 140 percent of average this year."

His latest figures also mirrored his predictions that there was a greater likelihood of storms making landfall along the U.S. coastline.

"The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be 30 percent above the long-period average," he said. "We foresee an above-average probability of U.S. and Caribbean landfall."

Gray said there was a 68 percent probability of a hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline in the upcoming hurricane season compared to 52 percent for the last century. Landfall probability along the East Coast was put at 48 percent compared to 31 percent last century and at 38 percent for the Gulf Coast compared to 30 percent for the last century.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

Gray said he would update his forecasts on May 30, the day before hurricane season officially begins, and then again in August and September.


Related Topics:

Will storms change climate debate?

Mental health often overlooked

Why did so much rain fall?


More links on Hurricanes

Find this article at:

http://www.disasternews.net/news/article.php?articleid=1384

Advertisers:

DNN Sponsors include:

Advertisements: